In the election of 1948, all signs could have been seen to point to a Republican victory. The Democratic incumbent, Harry Truman, was in dire straits-his administration was unpopular in the country as a whole, and to compound the problem, the Progressive and Dixiecrat splinter parties robbed him of potential supporters. With a fractured, unenthused party, it would have been easy to conclude that Truman stood no chance of victory. Not to be discouraged, Truman launched a brilliant campaign that would ultimately succeed in tipping the scales very slightly in his favor.
Truman’s political advisors wisely selected the key to his campaign-winning the New Deal coalition of liberal intellectuals, urban blacks, laborers, and farmers. Targeting these groups would undercut the Progressive Party’s ability to take Democratic votes. Truman courted these votes by touting his commitment to the New Deal and programs for the poor and underprivileged. To win over black voters, Truman put forward a civil rights program that would win him votes in key states, including California.
In courting the farm vote, Truman emphasized the generally good market for crops, from which farmers profited. He emphasized his administration’s extensive programs to benefit farmers, including soil conservation and rural education. Knowing this was a typically Republican voting bloc, Truman campaigned vigorously for it, and also used negative campaigning to full effect. By rightly claiming that the Republicans proposed doing away with many pro-farm programs, he was able to rob his competitor, Dewey, of a key support base.
What Truman himself considered most important, however, was his courting of the labor vote. During the 1946 mid-term election, many laborers had not voted, disapproving of Truman’s actions against strikes but even more wary of the Republicans. Truman was able to trumpet his veto of the Taft-Hartley Act, overridden though it was, and by joining labor leaders in calling it a “slave-labor act” and promising to repeal it, Truman won the labor vote in droves, giving him a big advantage over Dewey in many urban centers. Getting out the labor vote had a second effect-congressional seats lost to the Republicans in ’46 were also returned to Democratic hands in large numbers.
Overall, Harry Truman was a superb Presidential candidate in 1948, one who was able to unite diverse groups into a coalition behind him. In spite of all the factors running against him, Truman was able to campaign far more energetically than his opponent, which all told had a significant effect of its own.
Bernard Lemelin, “The U.S. Presidential Election of 1948: The Causes of Truman’s “Astonishing” Victory.” Revue française d’études américaines, 87 (2001), 38-60.
Harry S.Truman 